Tag: eu-referendum

Wel uit de euro, niet uit de euro

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De Griekse minister van Financiën Varoufakis zegt dat zijn land zich niet uit de euro laat zetten. Óók niet als de Grieken zondag tegen de Europese bezuinigingsvoorstellen stemmen. Eurogroepvoorzitter Dijsselbloem vindt dat de Grieken dan wél uit de euro moeten.

Als de Grieken zondag ‘nee’ stemmen, dan hebben ze geen andere keuze dan hun drachme of een andere munt in te voeren. Althans, volgens Bas Jacobs, hoogleraar Economie aan de Erasmus Universiteit. Want, zo zegt hij: “Van niemand krijgen ze nog geld en de kans is groot dat de ECB de Griekse banken zal laten vallen.” De Europese Centrale Bank staat dan ook een belangrijke beslissing te wachten, zegt Jacobs. “Ze moeten besluiten of de Griekse banken met veel Griekse obligaties niet langzamerhand in een staat van faillissement terechtkomen als die Griekse obligaties veel minder waard worden.”

En ja het kan, stelt de hoogleraar, dat de banken alsnog overeind gehouden worden met noodsteun of eventuele herstructureringen. Maar ik het politieke draagvlak daarvoor is volledig aan het vervliegen, zegt hij: “In dat geval denk ik dat de ECB de stekker uit het Griekse bankensysteem trekken en zal Griekenland geen andere keuze meer hebben dan het invoeren van een parallelle of een eigen munt. Want de ambtenarensalarissen, de pensioenen, die moeten allemaal worden uitgekeerd.”

De afgelopen dagen en weken gingen voorstellen heen en weer, de verschillen worden steeds kleiner en toch komen ze er niet uit. Waarom niet? “Omdat het politiek is geworden”, zegt Jacobs. “Het heeft allang niet meer met de economie te maken. Wat we de afgelopen dagen hebben gezien is een totale chaos over en weer. Dit is een tamelijk overzichtelijk probleem dat Europa op een totaal onoverzichtelijke manier laat ontsporen. De Griekse staatsschuld is erg hoog en onhoudbaar. Het macro-economische recept dat jarenlang is gevolgd heeft de Griekse economie in puin gelegd. De economie is meer dan een kwart gekrompen, de werkloosheid is gestegen naar meer dan 25 procent.”

Daar moet een andere oplossing voor worden gevonden. Eén die er volgens Jacobs uit bestaat dat ‘op korte termijn wat minder wordt bezuinigd’, mét strenge hervormingen en wat schuldenverlichting. “Maar daar wil Europa niet aan.”

Lees (of luister) verder op BNR >>>

Europe’s dream is dying in Greece

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By locking the nation into a failed economic experiment the EU is destroying wealth and stability.

The shuttered banks of Greece represent a profound failure for the EU. The current crisis is not just a reflection of the failings of the modern Greek state, it is also about the failure of a European dream of unity, peace and prosperity.

Over the past 30 years Europe has embraced its own version of the “end of history”. It became known as the European Union. The idea was that European nations could consign the tragedies of war, fascism and occupation to the past. By joining the EU, they could jointly embrace a better future based on democracy, the rule of law and the repudiation of nationalism.

As Lord Patten, a former EU commissioner, once boasted, the success of the union ensured that Europeans now spent their time “arguing about fish quotas or budgets, rather than murdering one another”.

When the Greek colonels were overthrown in 1974, Greece became the pioneer of a new model for Europe — in which the restoration of democracy at a national level was secured by a simultaneous application to join the European Economic Community (as it then was).

Greece became the 10th member of the European club in 1981. Its early membership of an EU that now numbers 28 countries is a rebuke to those who now claim it has always been a peripheral member.

The model first established in Greece — democratic consolidation, secured by European integration — was rolled out across the continent over the next three decades. Spain and Portugal, which had also cast off authoritarian regimes in the 1970s, joined the EEC in 1986. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, almost all the countries of the former Soviet bloc followed the Greek model of linking democratic change at home to a successful application to join the EU.

For the EU itself, Greek-style enlargement became its most powerful tool for spreading stability and democracy across the continent. As one Polish politician put it to me shortly before his country joined the EU: “Imagine there is a big river running through Europe. On one side is Moscow. On the other side is Brussels. We know which side of the river we need to be on.” That powerful idea — that the EU represented good government and secure democracy — has continued to resonate in modern Europe. It is why Ukrainian demonstrators were waving the EU flag when they overthrew the corrupt government of Viktor Yanukovich in 2014.

The danger now is that, just as Greece was once a trailblazer in linking a democratic transition to the European project, so it may become an emblem of a new and dangerous process: the disintegration of the EU.

Lees verder op the Financial Times >>>

Joseph Stiglitz: how I would vote in the Greek referendum

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Neither alternative – approval or rejection of the troika’s terms – will be easy, and both carry huge risks.

he rising crescendo of bickering and acrimony within Europe might seem to outsiders to be the inevitable result of the bitter endgame playing out between Greece and its creditors. In fact, European leaders are finally beginning to reveal the true nature of the ongoing debt dispute, and the answer is not pleasant: it is about power and democracy much more than money and economics.

Of course, the economics behind the programme that the “troika” (the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund) foisted on Greece five years ago has been abysmal, resulting in a 25% decline in the country’s GDP. I can think of no depression, ever, that has been so deliberate and had such catastrophic consequences: Greece’s rate of youth unemployment, for example, now exceeds 60%.

It is startling that the troika has refused to accept responsibility for any of this or admit how bad its forecasts and models have been. But what is even more surprising is that Europe’s leaders have not even learned. The troika is still demanding that Greece achieve a primary budget surplus (excluding interest payments) of 3.5% of GDP by 2018.

Economists around the world have condemned that target as punitive, because aiming for it will inevitably result in a deeper downturn. Indeed, even if Greece’s debt is restructured beyond anything imaginable, the country will remain in depression if voters there commit to the troika’s target in the snap referendum to be held this weekend.

In terms of transforming a large primary deficit into a surplus, few countries have accomplished anything like what the Greeks have achieved in the last five years. And, though the cost in terms of human suffering has been extremely high, the Greek government’s recent proposals went a long way toward meeting its creditors’ demands.

We should be clear: almost none of the huge amount of money loaned to Greece has actually gone there. It has gone to pay out private-sector creditors – including German and French banks. Greece has gotten but a pittance, but it has paid a high price to preserve these countries’ banking systems. The IMF and the other “official” creditors do not need the money that is being demanded. Under a business-as-usual scenario, the money received would most likely just be lent out again to Greece.

But, again, it’s not about the money. It’s about using “deadlines” to force Greece to knuckle under, and to accept the unacceptable – not only austerity measures, but other regressive and punitive policies.

But why would Europe do this?

Lees verder op The Guardian >>>

Dit is er gisteren wel gebeurd op de EU-top

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The Eurogroup Meeting of 27th June 2015 will not go down as a proud moment in Europe’s history. Ministers turned down the Greek government’s request that the Greek people should be granted a single week during which to deliver a Yes or No answer to the institutions’ proposals – proposals crucial for Greece’s future in the Eurozone. The very idea that a government would consult its people on a problematic proposal put to it by the institutions was treated with incomprehension and often with disdain bordering on contempt. I was even asked: “How do you expect common people to understand such complex issues?”. Indeed, democracy did not have a good day in yesterday’s Eurogroup meeting! But nor did European institutions. After our request was rejected, the Eurogroup President broke with the convention of unanimity (issuing a statement without my consent) and even took the dubious decision to convene a follow up meeting without the Greek minister, ostensibly to discuss the “next steps”.

Can democracy and a monetary union coexist? Or must one give way? This is the pivotal question that the Eurogroup has decided to answer by placing democracy in the too-hard basket. So far, one hopes.

Intervention by Yanis Varoufakis, 27th June 2015 Eurogroup Meeting

Colleagues,

In our last meeting (25th June) the institutions tabled their final offer to the Greek authorities, in response to our proposal for a Staff Level Agreement (SLA) as tabled on 22nd June (and signed by Prime Minister Tsipras). After long, careful examination, our government decided that, unfortunately, the institutions’ proposal could not be accepted. In view of how close we have come to the 30th June deadline, the date when the current loan agreement expires, this impasse of grave concern to us all and its causes must be thoroughly examined.

Lees en kijk verder op de blog van Yanis Varoufakis >>>

Europe’s Moment of Truth

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Until now, every warning about an imminent breakup of the euro has proved wrong. Governments, whatever they said during the election, give in to the demands of the troika; meanwhile, the ECB steps in to calm the markets. This process has held the currency together, but it has also perpetuated deeply destructive austerity — don’t let a few quarters of modest growth in some debtors obscure the immense cost of five years of mass unemployment.

As a political matter, the big losers from this process have been the parties of the center-left, whose acquiescence in harsh austerity — and hence abandonment of whatever they supposedly stood for — does them far more damage than similar policies do to the center-right.

It seems to me that the troika — I think it’s time to stop the pretense that anything changed, and go back to the old name — expected, or at least hoped, that Greece would be a repeat of this story. Either Tsipras would do the usual thing, abandoning much of his coalition and probably being forced into alliance with the center-right, or the Syriza government would fall. And it might yet happen.

But at least as of right now Tsipras seems unwilling to fall on his sword. Instead, faced with a troika ultimatum, he has scheduled a referendum on whether to accept. This is leading to much hand-wringing and declarations that he’s being irresponsible, but he is, in fact, doing the right thing, for two reasons.

Lees deze column van Paul Krugman verder op The New York Times >>>

Toespraak Alexis Tsipras: “Laat het Griekse volk beslissen”

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Zaterdagnacht om 1 uur heeft de Grieks eerste minister Alexis Tsipras in een rechtstreekse toespraak op tv de beslissing van de regering aangekondigd om op zondag 5 juli een referendum te houden over het besparingsakkoord dat de Eurogroep aan Griekenland wil opleggen voor de komende maanden.

Mijn Griekse landgenoten,

Zes maanden reeds voert de Griekse regering strijd tegen een economische wurging zonder voorgaande, om alsnog het mandaat uit te voeren dat u ons gaf op 25 januari 2015.

Het mandaat dat wij met onze partners onderhandelen bestond er in een einde te brengen aan de besparingen en voorspoed en sociale rechtvaardigheid terug naar ons land te brengen. Dit was een mandaat voor een duurzaam akkoord dat zowel de democratie als de gemeenschappelijke Europese regels zou respecteren en ons uiteindelijk uit de crisis zou halen.

Tijdens deze periode van onderhandelingen heeft men ons gevraagd akkoorden uit te voeren die nog waren overeengekomen met de vorige regeringen, zoals voorzien in de Memoranda, die nochtans categoriek waren afgewezen door het Griekse volk bij de recente verkiezingen. We hebben echter geen ogenblik overwogen om ons over te geven, om uw vertrouwen te beschamen.

Na vijf maanden harde onderhandelingen hebben onze onderhandelingspartners jammer genoeg eergisteren (25 juni) in de Eurogroep een ultimatum gesteld aan de Griekse democratie en het Griekse volk. Dit ultimatum gaat in tegen de stichtende principes en de waarden van Europa, tegen de waarden van ons gemeenschappelijk Europees project.

Zij hebben de Griekse regering gevraagd een voorstel te aanvaarden dat een nieuwe onhoudbare last oplegt aan het Griekse volk en dat het herstel van de Griekse economie en de Griekse maatschappij ondermijnt. Dit voorstel verlengt niet alleen de onzekerheid maar benadrukt bovendien de sociale ongelijkheden nog meer dan voorheen.

Lees de toespraak verder op De Wereld Morgen >>>

Oostenrijkers willen een EU-referendum

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A growing faction of Austrians are unhappy with EU membership and a drive is on to gather 100,000 signatures so that the prospect of an exit can be examined.

Just as everybody was fearing a Grexit, Frexit, Brexit, the Austrians launched a petition to quit the EU. Activists who launched the petition argue that Austria would be better off economically without the EU and is on a drive to gather 100,000 signatures by July 1 required for the national parliament to consider the initiative.

Inge Rauscher, a retired 66-year-old translator, began the drive. “We want to go back to a neutral and peace-loving Austria,” said Rauscher at the start of the campaign. Her non-partisan Heimat & Umwelt committee argues that Austria will benefit economically and environmentally from the rift. She is also critical of Austria’s forced endorsement of EU sanctions against Russia and blames Brussels for the economic downturn. She points to the loss of the country’s sovereignty with over 80% of essential legislation being dictated by Brussels, not by elected commissioners. “In our view, Europe is not a democracy,” she said.

Rauscher and her committee calculates that each household would gain 9,800 euro’s per annum from a rift once freed from the burdens of EU democracy. Opinion polls show that a third of Austrians are in favor of leaving the EU.

“This initiative is open for all political parties and we expect a broad support. This is proved by our numerous conversations with the citizens over the past months,” Rauscher said. Rauscher added that at the preliminary stage, before the initiative was officially launched, it collected some 10,000 signatures from Austrian citizens.

However, Rauscher said that the Austrian media have barely mentioned the petition because they are “loyal to the European Union,” making it harder to promote the initiative.

The authors of the petition regard an EU exit as the only way to make Austria independent of Brussels and return to neutrality.

If the initiative gathers 100,000 signatures in the period between June 24 until July 1, it will be considered in the lower house of the Austria’s parliament.

Ophef over toespraak koningin Elizabeth

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Een toespraak die de Britse koningin Elizabeth heeft gehouden tijdens een staatsbanket in Duitsland, heeft in Londen tot ophef geleid. Buckingham Palace zag zich daardoor donderdag genoodzaakt te ontkennen dat de koningin lobbyt tegen een Brits vertrek uit de Europese Unie.

„We weten dat we hard moeten werken om de verworvenheden van de naoorlogse wereld te behouden. We weten dat verdeeldheid in Europa gevaarlijk is en dat we moeten werken om ons daartegen te wapenen, zowel in het westen als het oosten van ons continent”, zei de koningin woensdag tijdens het staatsbanket. Daarbij waren ook de Britse premier David Cameron en de Duitse bondskanselier Angela Merkel aanwezig.

De uitspraken liggen extra gevoelig, omdat Cameron tijdens de top van de Europese Unie donderdag juist gaat pleiten voor nieuwe lidmaatschapsvoorwaarden, vooruitlopend op een referendum over het eventuele vertrek van Groot-Brittannië uit de Unie.

„Zoals altijd staat de koningin boven de politiek en is ze politiek neutraal over de EU”, verklaarde een woordvoerder.

De toespraak van de koningin is opgesteld in nauw overleg met de premier en het ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken.

Bron: De Telegraaf